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  1. #1 Effects of the Iran/Yemen attacks on Saudi Aramco 
    Ancient Fire Breather Retread's Avatar
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    First point: The Saudi’s are no longer the world’s top producer. That’s not saying they couldn’t be as they appear to have reduced their imports considerable and there is no word on any of their fields going dry.

    Second: The only damage to production is a one million a day field that is currently shut in but, according to the damage, may be back online this week.

    Third: The further damage (5.7 mmb/d) is to a primary refinery or, more truly, a stabilization plant that only removes sulphur and such from sour crude and ships the resulting sweet crude to refineries.

    Fourth: They believe they can restore half of the capability of that plant in less than a week.

    And last for now: They have over one months worth of supply to continue their current contracts of which the US receives only 600,000 barrels. The rest of their 9 plus millions mostly go to Asia.

    The prognosticators I most trust believe a temporary $10 a barrel increase is most likely which would eventually convert to 10-15 cents a gallon at the US pumps.
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    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    Good points. All I was saying in the previous thread is that IF it leads to war, ALL gulf oil will be disrupted, Saudi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, UAE and the world will be in chaos.

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  3. #3  
    Ancient Fire Breather Retread's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old dog View Post
    Good points. All I was saying in the previous thread is that IF it leads to war, ALL gulf oil will be disrupted, Saudi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, UAE and the world will be in chaos.
    You are correct my friend. That’s always a big if in the world’s oil industry.

    New news from Singapore:

    Brent prices jumped as much as $11.73 to $71.95 a barrel in early trading in Singapore. State energy producer Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day of output on Saturday after 10 unmanned aerial vehicles struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais.

    Slightly over $10 on first strike.

    A point I left out before. The world output has been shifted considerably in the last little while as Venezuela has nearly stopped production and Iran being forced onto the black market and no price response to either.
    Unless or until other shooting activity increases, I’m not worried about it. Gas was under $2 a gallon in some areas around our place this week.
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    Ancient Fire Breather Retread's Avatar
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    Brent crude settled down to a gain of about $7, or 13%, to $67.86 a barrel.

    West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 11%, up $6 to $60.85 a barrel.

    Most say if Saudi Aramco can settle it down by next weekend the price will drift back down.
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    Senior Member cadillac shark's Avatar
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    When all was said-and-done, it went up 7-bux.

    The media: "It's soaring. " … right.
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cadillac shark View Post
    When all was said-and-done, it went up 7-bux.

    The media: "It's soaring. " … right.
    It was $73-74 last April. We’re paying 30 cents less than a year ago. 10-20 cents... like Rock, that’s a meh.
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    Senior Member cadillac shark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Retread View Post
    It was $73-74 last April. We’re paying 30 cents less than a year ago. 10-20 cents... like Rock, that’s a meh.
    Now it's falling .86-cents.

    Middle Eastern oil has so little sediment in it that it doesn't need elaborate refining like most of the world's does. So hitting a refinery there doesn't really fit the criteria of a 'high-value target'.

    China's hurt most of all by the strikes. Yet their spokesperson came-out all wimpy about whom to blame. -Probably trying to goad the Trump Administration into inadvertently rescuing them from acting themselves.
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    Ancient Fire Breather Retread's Avatar
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    Rumor mill fodder: Saudi restored some function Monday.
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    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    I believe the Iranians are pursuing a win-win strategy (for them):

    1. If their provocative actions result in easing of European sanctions their economy might have a reprieve. The Europeans are, however, constrained by the real threat of Secondary Sanctions by the President.

    2, If the provocative actions go south and result in a real war with the Saudis, UAE and maybe even the Israelis it will move the world into chaos and hasten the arrival of the 12th Imam. Iran is NOT ruled by it's President, it is ruled by the Mullas who are all devout 12ers. They have their own armed forces the IRG which is independent of the government. The Mullahs are TRUE BELIEVERS.

    PS I think Trump is smart enough not to participate in any reprisals other that intelligence, weapons and technical assistance. The Saudi's are not qualified to efficiently operate all the toys they buy from us as they base military positions of importance on tribal considerations.

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    Power CUer noonwitch's Avatar
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    Gas prices around here went up about .45 overnight after the attacks. Prices should be going down once the refineries switch back to winter fuel standards.
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